Commodity Market Report
Global steel long-term outlook Q3 2016
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
2016 is shaping up to be a better year for steel than we had expected. The secret of its success? As ever, China. Trapped between the immediate need of reviving a slowing economy and the structural necessity of reforming excess capacity in the steel sector, the Chinese government ended up stimulating the construction sector. As a result, steel prices shot up in China from US$270/tonne in December 2015 to US$400/tonne in April. Prices have since retracted, and between sluggish demand growth and lingering overcapacity we expect them to remain practically flat in the medium term. It is only in the long term that we expect demand growth and costs structure to support a sustainable price recovery.
Table of contents
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China
- Summary
- Demand
- Property construction: demand revised up in the medium term but down in the long term
- Infrastructure: slow growth in 2016 and the medium term
- Manufacturing sector: medium-term gain, long-term pain
- Production and capacity
- Capacity cuts: there are still problems for this year and the medium term
- Production: revised up in 2016 and the medium term
- 3 more item(s)...
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Japan
- Demand in the construction sector has been revised up
- but the manufacturing sector will shrink
- Steel exports will be challenged in the long term
- Japan needs to cut more capacity
- Taiwan
-
India
- Growth continues to disappoint
- Indian construction sector is under pressure
- Little change to medium and long-term steel demand growth
- State-by-state steel demand growth
- How will India meet its steel demand?
- Steelmaking capacity outlook remains highly uncertain
- Malaysia
- Indonesia
- Thailand
- Vietnam
- Philippines
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Europe
- Differing outlook for EU members in the construction sector
- EU automotive sector is still growing, but for how long?
- All other sectors: volatile growth
- EU production declines
- Trade: EU exporters are losing custom
- Resilient capacity despite the sluggish outlook for demand
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Turkey
- Construction in Turkey: growth in 2016 will be followed by weaker years
- Turkish automotive, machinery and appliances: growth sectors
- Trade
- Production
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Other Europe
- Steel demand growth will remain sluggish
- Competition from imports continues to weigh on steel production
- and so will the threat of anti-dumping duties
- 10 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key China forecast data
- Total building completion revised up in the medium term but down in the long term
- China's new long-term plan for railway construction
- Wealthier households will promote car demand in the future
- Western regions will lead the increase in car penetration in the long term
- Changes to crude steel capacity, 2010-2020
- Changes to hot metal capacity, 2010-2020
- Crude steel capacity cut by provinces, 2016
- Hot metal capacity cut by provinces, 2016
- Provincial capacity-cutting targets in 2016 and the medium term
- 39 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
