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Commodity Market Report 19 June 2024

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Report summary

The prolonged property crisis continues to drag China in the first half of 2024, while other major economies show relatively strong steel demand recovery, with India taking the lead followed by the West. Looking forward, we expect a stronger demand growth at 2.8% in 2025. Easing inflationary risks and lower interest rates will benefit the West. India and Southeast Asia will enjoy healthy growth on account of population expansion and urbanization. On the flip side, only marginal improvement is expected in China as the economy is less dependent on the housing sector, and the total steel demand will be on a downward trajectory impacted by the weakening demographics. Over the long term, China will be a growth deterrent. Global growth will piggyback on robust demand momentum from emerging economies in India and Southeast Asia. Driven by decarbonisation, rising EAF share and increased preference for scrap and DRI will bear on iron ore demand in the long term.