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Incentive prices: alumina to aluminium price ratio to rise?

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's analysis of long run incentive prices for alumina and aluminium suggests that prices will need to be higher in the future than historically observed, if the market is to remain in equilibrium.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Incentive prices: alumina to aluminium price ratio to rise?

    PDF 523.01 KB

Table of contents

  • IRR methodology- the rationale and risks
  • Prices have not kept pace with operating costs
  • Capital intensity for both refineries and smelters have risen
  • Incentive pricing - assumptions employed
  • Model output - long run equilibrium alumina and prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Refinery capital intensity outside of China, 1980-2016 (US$/t installed capacity)
  • Smelter capital intensity outside of China, 1980-2016 (US$/t installed capacity)

Images

  • Raw material, electricity, energy and alumina prices
  • Raw material, electricity and aluminium prices
  • Alumina prices and refinery cash costs, 2000-2012 (US$/t aluminium)
  • Aluminium prices and smelter cash costs, 2000-2012 (US$/t alumina)
  • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2012 US$/t alumina)
  • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2012 US$/t aluminium)

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