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Iron ore mine closures: domestic price premium puts less Chinese supply at risk

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07 September 2015

Iron ore mine closures: domestic price premium puts less Chinese supply at risk

Report summary

Our revised view of Chinese capacity at risk of closure is 33 million tonnes lower than previous estimate, reflecting an unanticipated price premium for local ore suppliers. With 33 million tonnes of Chinese production 'back in cash', some imported iron ore has to be displaced instead. Looking at the margin curve of all supplies to China shows Australian juniors and Iranian supplies are at most risk of closure.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • China domestic prices are attracting a premium over seaborne prices
  • Less Chinese production losing money than previously thought
    • China iron ore supply margin curve - exports to China and domestic production

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Local price premium over import iron ore
  • Prices of Inland provinces are more sticky
  • Chinese iron ore margin curve
  • Chinese iron ore production with negative margins
  • Iron ore mine closures: domestic price premium puts less Chinese supply at risk: Image 5

What's included

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  • Document

    Iron ore mine closures: domestic price premium puts less Chinese supply at risk

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