Iron ore project review 2020

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15 October 2020

Iron ore project review 2020

Report summary

We have seen an increase in the number of active projects and the activity associated with these projects as a direct result of high iron ore prices but we do not think many of these will go ahead. They are either high cost, capital intensive or geographically challenging. In addition, COVID-19 has severely impacted global financial markets and while margins in the iron ore sector are at record levels, investors are cautious. Most new mines will be limited to replacement projects for existing and depleting assets, particularly in Australia. One exception is Simandou in Guinea. With the northern blocks having been awarded to a Chinese led consortium with plans to spend US$14 billion on the mine and infrastructure, Rio Tinto is now re-evaluating the potential development of its southern blocks. While Simandou does not fall into our base case, we can't ignore the potential impact that an additional 180 Mtpa could have on global iron ore supply and the viability of other projects.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Projects, Projects and more Projects
    • Simandou
    • Zogota
    • Nimba
    • Other
  • Project completions
  • Capital costs
  • Project incentive prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Proposed capacity and capital expenditure
  • Project incentive price (Simandou at 12% IRR)
  • Project capital intensity
  • Average capital intensity
  • Projects with capex changes

What's included

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    Iron ore project review 2020

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