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Iron ore: ten points to watch out for in 2014

22 January 2014

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22 January 2014

Iron ore: ten points to watch out for in 2014

Report summary

In this note we take a step back from the big global themes and focus on ten iron ore specific issues that we believe warrant attention in 2014: China’s environmental challenge; price responsiveness of Chinese iron ore production; return of the “quality premium”; corporate strategy; funding risk; technical risk; shale gas; west Africa; Indian exports; Iranian exports.

Executive summary
- Risk 1: China’s environmental challenge – a serious threat to iron ore?
- Risk 2: The price responsiveness of Chinese iron ore production.
- Risk 3: Return of the quality premium – positive for suppliers of lump and pellet, but for how long?
- Risk 4: Corporate strategy – will the majors stick with their quest for value not volume?
- Risk 5: Funding – where’s the money coming from?
- Risk 6: Technical and cost challenges associated with potential new sources of concentrate supply.
- Risk 7: Shale gas - its impact on DRI and DR-pellets.
- Risk 8: West Africa – losing its game-changer status.
- Risk 9: Indian exports – government policy holds the key.
- Risk 10: Iran – have exports peaked?