Perspectives - Metals and Mining - November 2024

The change in US government is threatening to make geopolitics the unavoidable issue of 2025, with the spectre of a trade war hanging over the global economy and metals markets. The rhetoric suggests a positive near term outlook for US fossil fuel production and slower growth for transition metals, but there is plenty of room for surprises. Meanwhile, the economic cycle offers some hope with rates forecast to trend back toward 3% in key markets on this loosening cycle, and industrial production set to surge, back above GDP growth. The chilling effect of Chinese overcapacity on battery raw materials and smelting, as well as the parlous state of the property sector - will remain a material driver of markets next year, and in fact still remain influential over the 3-year outlook. Read on for more detail on market dynamics, what Trump's election means, as well as a look at Lithium's attractiveness to diversified miners.