2017 is likely to be characterised by increased macro uncertainty and risk. But this is not the case for the zinc market which is set to be characterised by certainty. It is certain that mine closures have already resulted in the drawdown of global stocks of concentrate to minimal working levels. It is certain that this will hinder the ability of smelters to rapidly increase production in response to higher prices and good demand this year. It is also certain, therefore, that at some point in the year these constraints will result in stocks of refined metal being drawn down to minimal working levels. The question is when will this occur?