Asset Report

Iraq Zagros Foldbelt exploration basin

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31 March 2016

Iraq Zagros Foldbelt exploration basin

Report summary

The Zagros Foldbelt provides investors with a mix of attractive exploration opportunities within Kurdish administered territory, and large and giant discovered resource opportunities (DROs) within Federal Iraq jurisdiction. Several large discoveries in the last decade have attracted large players to the basin including ExxonMobil, Total and Chevron.  Out to 2035, exploration in Kurdistan is expected to create substantial value and offer attractive returns. The advance of the Islamic State militant group has increased security concerns in the province and could have a negative impact on future exploration levels.

Table of contents

  • Key facts
    • Key issues include:
  • Location maps
  • Participation
    • Kurdistan
    • Federal Iraq
  • Geology
    • Wells drilled
    • Basin success rates
    • Volumes discovered
    • Yet-to-find potential
      • Play inputs
        • Creaming curve and key play data
      • Model field pool size distribution
      • Existing discoveries and modelled yet-to-find pool size distribution
    • Yet-to-find costs and underlying development assumptions
      • Cretaceous-Tertiary
      • Mesozoic
  • Costs
    • Licensing
      • Kurdistan
      • Outside Kurdistan
    • Fiscal terms
    • Oil and gas prices
    • TYP economics
    • Outlook economics
    • Development value
      • Cretaceous-Tertiary
      • Mesozoic
    • Prospect breakeven price
      • Cretaceous-Tertiary
      • Mesozoic
    • Expected monetary value (EMV)
    • Play economics
    • Full cycle basin economics
    • Implied acreage value

Tables and charts

This report includes 61 images and tables including:

  • Play level data
  • Assumptions
  • Value creation versus investment (TYP period)
  • Value creation versus investment (outlook)
  • Location maps: Image 1
  • Location maps: Image 2
  • Licensed exploration acreage
  • Expiry forecast of current licences
  • Key play characteristics
  • Recent discovery costs
  • Summary of discovery and development costs
  • Exploration and appraisal spend
  • Exploration spend per well and average well depth
  • Commerciality index
  • Key license holders
  • Key well operators (TYP period)
  • Gross exploration wells completed by operator
  • Net exploration wells completed by participant
  • Company success rates and discoveries
  • Drilling activity by well type
  • Cumulative exploration wells by play
  • Discoveries and success rates
  • Discoveries by licence year and drilling year
  • Basin creaming curve
  • Key basin data
  • Volumes discovered by year
  • Average discovery size and volume per well by year
  • Top discoveries (TYP period)
  • Cumulative discoveries by play
  • Cumulative volumes discovered by play
  • Forecast data by Play (outlook)
  • Typical fiscal terms
  • Brent and local oil price assumptions
  • Henry Hub and local gas price assumptions
  • Value creation, spend and volume discovered
  • Returns by drilling year
  • Breakeven price versus prospect size
  • Value creation versus investment
  • Cretaceous-Tertiary
  • Mesozoic
  • Cretaceous-Tertiary
  • Economic analysis: Table 4
  • Full-cycle economic analysis
  • Average value of future discoveries and implied acreage value
  • Cretaceous-Tertiary
  • Mesozoic
  • Cretaceous-Tertiary
  • Mesozoic
  • Development: Table 1
  • Development: Table 2
  • Value of potential discoveries
  • Unit value of potential discoveries
  • Value of potential discoveries
  • Unit value of potential discoveries
  • Breakeven price of exploration
  • Discount rate breakeven price sensitivities
  • Breakeven price of exploration
  • Discount rate breakeven price sensitivities
  • Kurdistan Cretaceous-Tertiary
  • Reserves and resources: Table 4
  • Mesozoic

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