Canada upstream in brief Report

Insight 22 September 2023

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What's inside this report?

Corporate news: What’s caught the team’s attention in the headlines this month
Deep dive: Expert analysis from our dedicated team on the most exciting developments in the sector – from M&A activity to new exploration to geopolitical developments
What to watch: What to expect from the Canadian upstream sector over the next few months

Report summary

The Canada upstream in brief provides our expert opinion and analysis of the top upstream stories as they unfold. We have a dedicated team of experienced industry analysts covering all regions of Canadian upstream activity – Oil Sands, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, Arctic, and offshore East Coast. We primarily focus on: exploration and appraisal drilling, project developments, production, licensing, fiscal and regulatory changes, geopolitics, and corporate and M&A activity.

Recent insights
Deal activity
TMX cost overruns: assessing the aftermath
- Jonah Resnick , 22 September 2023
- Adiós! Peyto to acquire remaining Repsol Canada assets
- Tyson Gervais , 07 September 2023
- Strathcona Resources to go public through Pipestone acquisition
- Tyson Gervais , 03 August 2023
- More M&A inbound
- Equinor and BP delay the long awaited Bay du Nord sanction decision, again.
- Mark Oberstoetter , 31 May 2023
- Decoding Alberta elections: what does it mean for the upstream industry?
- Mark Oberstoetter , 29 May 2023
- ConocoPhillips changes Canadianisation to North Americanisation
- Jonah Resnick , 26 May 2023
- ConocoPhillips motivation
- Suncor disapointment
- Stay tuned
- Devastating start to wildfire season in Alberta
- Mark Oberstoetter , 8 May 2023
- TotalEnergies bids au revoir to its oil sands asset via sale to Suncor
- Mark Oberstoetter , 27 April 2023
- Newfoundland & Labrador is putting 50 parcels on offer
- Mark Oberstoetter , 18 April 2023
- The "I's" have it: oil sands developments accelerate at Blackrod and Cold Lake
- Scott Norlin , 7 Feb 2023
- Blueberry River First Nations and BC Government reach agreement on oil and gas development
- Scott Norlin and Ryan Taylor , 19 January 2023
- Crescent Point adds to its Kaybob Duvernay position
- Mark Oberstoetter , 9 December 2022
- Newfoundland & Labrador lease sale attracts bids of Cdn$238 million
- Mark Oberstoetter , 2 November 2022
- New dawn for oil sands transactions? TotalEnergies and Teck indicate potential spin off of oil sands assets
- Scott Norlin , 29 September 2022
- Enbridge divests working interest to Aii (Athabasca Indigenous Investments)
Tamarack Energy expands in the Clearwater play with acquisition of Deltastream
- Jonah Resnick , 12 September 2022
Kiwetinohk consolidates in Placid Montney
- Scott Norlin , 25 August 2022
Alberta releases geothermal development regulation
- Scott Norlin , 17 August 2022
Quarterly results, growing differentials and explaining our bitumen prices
- Mark Oberstoetter , 8August 2022
Strathcona acquires Serafina in private takeover
- Scott Norlin , 3 August 2022
Enbridge takes a stake in the Woodfibre LNG project
- Mark Oberstoetter , 29 July 2022
Alberta proposes changes to TIER
- Scott Norlin , 27 July 2022
An ongoing discussion: oil and gas emissions cap
- Scott Norlin , 18 July 2022
Entropy commissioning CCS at Glacier, plus a promising pipeline of additional phases
- Scott Norlin , 12 July 2022
Cenovus and BP swap oil sands for offshore
- Scott Norlin ,13 June 2022
Cenovus and Suncor re sanction the West White Rose project
- Mark Oberstoetter , 31 May 2022
Canada cost inflation - the effect and response
- Rowena Gunn 25 May 2022
Newfoundland & Labrador 2022 call for bids: last call, or just another bite at the cherry?
- Jonah Resnick and Julie Wilson , 12 May 2022
Canada oil sands: Q1 2022 net earnings top nine billion
- Rowena Gunn , 10 May 2022
Activist investor comes at Suncor
- Rowena Gunn and Jonah Resnick , 29 April 2022
CNRL hits Cdn$100 billion market valuation milestone
- Rowena Gunn ,26 April 2022
Canada carbon investment tax credit clarity
- Scott Norlin , Jon Gorrie and Peter Findlay , 11 April 2022
Suncor: The wind stops blowing, but on track for 2050 net zero
- Jonah Resnick , 7 April 2022
Bay du Nord receives federal approval to proceed
- Scott Norlin and Mark Oberstoetter , 6 April 2022
Vermilion enters Montney with Leucrotta acquisition
- Jonah Resnick , 31 March 2022
Canada tables emissions reduction plan to 2030
- Scott Norlin , 29 March 2022
Quest CCS receives performance scrutiny
- Mark Oberstoetter and Mhairidh Evans, 1 February 2022
ExxonMobil marketing its Montney and Duvernay position
- Mark Oberstoetter , 12 January 2022
Gas deals in the news for ARC Resources and CNRL
- Mark Oberstoetter , 11 November 2021
Pathways initiative lays out three phase plan to net zero
- Scott Norlin , 21 October 2021
Terra Nova confirms restart, ownership structure change
- Scott Norlin , 8 September 2021
Expanding egress in Canada
- Scott Norlin , 2 September 2021
JAPEX exits from the Hangingstone project
- Scott Norlin , 29 July 2021
Spartan Delta continues M&A growth path
- Scott Norlin , 29 July 2021
AER draft on liability management released
- Scott Norlin , 21 July 2021
New large scale carbon capture facility announced by Shell
- Scott Norlin , 13 July 2021
In second biggest deal of 2021 so far, Tourmaline to acquire Black Swan
- Scott Norlin , 11 June 2021
A new alliance ascends: The Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero Initiative
- Rowena Gunn , 11 June 2021
Oil sands forecasts show bullish outlook to 2030
- Scott Norlin , 8 June 2021
Suncor commits to a 2050 net-zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions target
- April Read , 8 June 2021
Chevron marks out AOSP oil sands as non-strategic
- Mark Oberstoetter , 3 June 2021
Tourmaline continues Montney shopping spree
- Jon Gorrie , 19 May 2021
Canadian decarbonisation projects start to take shape
- Rowena Gunn , 11 May 2021
In situ hits monthly production record
- Scott Norlin , 4 May 2021
ESG takes center stage: Enerplus secures new US$900 million sustainability linked credit facility
- Scott Norlin , 30 April 2021
Rig rates back in recovery: our look back following spring break up
- Rowena Gunn , 13 April 2021
Tamarack Valley acquires Anegada Oil Corp
- Rowena Gunn , 12 April 2021
Whitecap Resources expands in Montney with a Cdn$300 million Kicking Horse deal
- Mark Oberstoetter , 5 April 2021
Advantage Oil & Gas heralds cost effective modular Carbon Capture and Storage
- Jon Gorrie , 1 April 2021
Stena Forth drillship sailing towards Canada
- Mark Oberstoetter , 30 March 2021
Carbon tax confirmed as constitutional
- Scott Norlin , 31 March 2021
Condensate and diluent: diving into the M&A induced changes
- Mark Oberstoetter , 15 March 2021
Oil sands Q4 results: stability returns in Q4 2020
- Scott Norlin , 8 March 2021
Double whammy of Duvernay deals
- Scott Norlin , 17 February 2021
Spartan spies Simonette, Montney and Willesden Green
- Scott Norlin , 16 February 2021
Midstream moves? Inter Pipeline attracts a hostile offer
- Mark Oberstoetter , 15 February 2021
A Montney champion rises
- Scott Norlin , 11 February 2021
Indicative issuance in Canada
- Scott Norlin , 21 January 2021
Exploration projects approved off Canada's East Coast
- April Read , 12 January 2021
Canada's carbon price to rise to $170/tonne: implications for upstream
- Mark Oberstoetter , 17 December 2020
5 things to look for in 2021
- April Read , 11 December 2020
Checking in on 2021 guidance
- Mark Oberstoetter , 10 December 2020
Whitecap acquires TORC for US$700 million
- Scott Norlin , 10 December
Cenovus divests Marten Hills
- Scott Norlin , 9 November 2020
Upstream webinar: Canada's evolving upstream landscape
- Tuesday, 10 November 2020 Americas 9:00AM MST | Europe 5:00PM BST
- Re-watch the recording of our webinar here .
Tourmaline doubles down on Deep Basin
- Scott Norlin , 5 November 2020
- Read our deal insight here
One successful result in the 2020 Newfoundland and Labrador Call for Bids
With or without you: an uncertain fate for the Keystone XL pipeline
Canadian consolidation continues: Montney focused M&A trends
- Scott Norlin , 26 October 2020
Cenovus and Husky announce plans to merge
Government curtailment ends in Alberta
TIER used to fund methane reduction development
- Scott Norlin , 29 September 2020
Suncor announces an operational update
- Scott Norlin , 7 September 2020
Consolidation continues in western Canada
- Scott Norlin , 31 August 2020
Waterous consolidates to form Strathcona Resources
- Scott Norlin , 14 August 2020
CNRL swoops in to acquire Painted Pony
The losses keep mounting for oil sands operators in Q2
Total writes down oil sands and rules out any future capacity increases
- Mark Oberstoetter , 29 July 2020
ConocoPhillips deals for Kelt's Inga Montney position
- Mark Oberstoetter , 22 July 2020
Tourmaline leading the pack
- Scott Norlin , 15 July 2020
Shifting tides of M&A in Canada
- Scott Norlin , 10 July 2020
Revolver redeterminations continue to be extended
Financial focus in H2 2020
- Scott Norlin , 2 July 2020
- 1H 2020 published insights from the Canada team:
Wildcat discovery in offshore Newfoundland & Labrador?
- April Read , 10 June 2020
Longshore Resources combines with Rifle Shot, Steelhead and Primavera
- Rowena Gunn , 10 June 2020
Hydrogen – a new national energy strategy?
- April Read , 10 June 2020
After the crash - what's changed in Canada upstream?
- April Read , 9 June 2020
Canadian companies added to hedging tracker
- Scott Norlin , 26 May 2020
Federal funding for abandonment promising in Western Canada
- Scott Norlin , 26 May 2020
AER blocks Pieridae acquisition of Shell assets
- Scott Norlin , 15 May 2020
Canadian capex cuts compiled
- Rowena Gunn , 8 May 2020
An update on oil sands shut ins
- Mark Oberstoetter , 7 May 2020
Assessing debt levels: distant maturities create comfort for the larger producers
- Mark Oberstoetter , 5 May 2020
NGL pipeline delayed
- Scott Norlin , 27 April 2020
Webinar: a Canadian update on coronavirus and the oil price crash
- Mark Oberstoetter , 21 April 2020
Aid announced for oil and gas industry
- April Read ,20 April 2020
What's next for Canadian production?
- Rowena Gunn , 9 April 2020
Full scale oil sands shut-ins begin
- Rowena Gunn , 3 April 2020
Government of Alberta invests in Keystone XL
- April Read , 31 March 2020
Production shut-ins: unprecedented times calling for extreme measures
- Mark Oberstoetter , 27 March 2020
Bay du Nord shelved as a victim of price drop
- Mark Oberstoetter , 18 March 2020
Canadian capex cut
- Scott Norlin , 11 March 2020
Tourmaline consolidates in the Montney
- Scott Norlin , 25 February 2020
Teck withdraws the Frontier mining project
- April Read , 24 February 2020
Coronavirus: how is it impacting the oil and gas sector?
- Fraser McKay , 24 February 2020
TC Energy to expand WCSB gas infrastructure
- Scott Norlin , 13 February 2020
- Clearing obstacles
- April Read , 4 Feb 2020
- Rigs spike in January
- Mark Oberstoetter , 13 January 2020
- Cenovus plans a date for net zero emissions
- Lease sales underwhelm in December and all of 2019
- CN Rail strike threatens egress
- The struggles of highly leveraged Alberta mid-sized producers continue
- Pengrowth
- Bellatrix
- Suncor announces low-carbon cogeneration FID
- Koch Industries makes an oil sands exit
- Oil sands emissions: increasing or decreasing?
- Oil slick at Hibernia necessitates production shut in
- Alberta announces two fiscal changes
- Comparing play-wide average returns to price realisations
- Shell sells conventional sour Foothills gas to LNG aspirant Pieridae Energy for Cdn$190mm
- TransMountain Expansion receives government approval
- CNRL acquires Devon's Canada assets
- Pacific Oil & Gas acquires Montney-specialist Canbriam Energy
- Bill C-69 proposed project list released
- Q1 2019 in the oil sands: what to watch for
- Blue wave sweeps Alberta legislature
- Deal activity remains quiet
- Deal activity remains quiet
- Chevron applies to expand Kitimat LNG license
- Oil sands project status update
- Montney production remains resilient
- Pipeline peril continues
- Devon eyes Canada exit
- Alberta curtailments tweaked for February
- Western Canada rig counts eclipse 2016 doldrums
- Alberta government mandating production curtailments of up to 325 kbd in 2019
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Tables and charts

This report includes 87 images and tables including:

2020 Newfoundland and Labrador Call for Bid results
Alberta production breakdown

Completed RBL redeterminations
Redetermination extensions
TMX shippers
TMX realisations before and after toll increase
Peyto and Repsol Deep Basin Assets
Table 1: Deep Basin M&A transactions over US$100M
Table 2: Gas-weighted Western Canada M&A transactions over US$100M
Strathcona Resources Ltd. (new public entity)
SMID-Cap Montney operator details
SMID-Cap Montney operators - sized by valuation
Production impact of a three year bay du Nord delay
Deal structure evolution
Surmont asset performance
Map of Drayton Valley selected lease positions
TotalEnergies global emissions intensity before and after sale
Map showing existing and on offer parcels
Tamarack Valley acquisition of Deltastream Clearwater play acreage West Central Alberta
Kiwetinohk land base
Emissions reduction target coverage
Canadian regulatory roundup
Eastern Newfoundland Region parcels available for bid
Corporate reported net earnings
Oil sands mining production
Five year trend of extractive operating costs
Bay du Nord cluster cash flow at a US$60/bbl long term flat real price
Leucrotta Montney acreage map
Emissions profile (historic and target) vs. production
Absolute emissions reduction forecast
Quest CCS annual performance
Celtic Exploration and ExxonMobil-operated drilling activity
ExxonMobil Resthaven and Kaybob acreage position
Net Zero Pathways
Net Zero Pathways infrastructure
Western Canada pipeline capacity
Oil sands emissions by working interest owner
Comparison of oil sands bitumen production forecasts
Suncor emisisons
AOSP Project cash flow
AOSP Project emissions and intensity
Tourmaline and Saguaro land positions
Offshore total emissions intensity by country (2017-2021)
In situ monthly production
Active rig count by play
Whitecap's M&A history
Whitecap's production history
Shell and Crescent Point Duvernay map
Cequence asset base
Post tax net cash flow or ARC Resources combined with Seven Generations
Newfoundland and Labrador approved project lease locations
Capital expenditure budgets
Company land base
Alberta methane emissions
Total's oil sands working interest cash flow under three price scenarios
Well activity map
Production and drilling history by operator
Hedging breakdown for Canadian operators
Abandonment funding
Capital budget revisions
Selected companies debt by maturity
Net debt vs. % maturing within five years
Tourmaline acquisition acreage northeast BC
Drilling activity - formation targets
Drilling activity - operators
Company-level emissions intensity from oil sands projects
Western Canada leasing results
Encana cashflow by region
Koch and Paramount Resources oil sands lease positions
Oil sands emissions intensity
Play average IRR% versus 2019 price
West Canada oil supply - local refinery consumption vs pipeline takeaway capacity
Consideration metrics for oil sands and heavy oil deals
Northern BC sub-play map
Northern BC IP30 ranking
Oil sands emissions forecast
Canada crude oil exports by rail
Jackfish NPV10 comparison
Canada upstream M&A consideration and deal count
Asian LNG demand growth
Aspen cumulative cash flow
Montney gas production
Provincial rig count 2014-present
Regional rig count 2014-present