The election of Joe Biden as US President in January 2021 has increased anticipation of a return to the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of US sanctions. There are several obstacles to achieving this, including Iran’s presidential elections in June 2021. A deal before this looks increasingly unlikely, as Iran continues to diverge from the nuclear compliance it adhered to under the agreement. The new US administration has stated it is prepared to re-join the deal and start lifting sanctions if Iran returns to full compliance, but with Iran waiting for the US to make the first move, a stand-off ensues. Our base case assumes sanctions remain in place until 2025. We explore how quickly Iran can ramp-up production after sanctions are lifted and the impact on the oil market if sanctions are lifted sooner.