We are excited to announce that as of February 1, Wood Mackenzie is a portfolio company of Veritas Capital, a leading investor at the intersection of technology and government. Our focus remains on providing you with the best intelligence, analytics, data and tools to ensure you are making the best data-driven business decisions with confidence.  

Read more in our news release here. 


Iran sanctions: how quickly can oil production be restored?

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

01 April 2021

Iran sanctions: how quickly can oil production be restored?

Report summary

The election of Joe Biden as US President in January 2021 has increased anticipation of a return to the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of US sanctions. There are several obstacles to achieving this, including Iran’s presidential elections in June 2021. A deal before this looks increasingly unlikely, as Iran continues to diverge from the nuclear compliance it adhered to under the agreement. The new US administration has stated it is prepared to re-join the deal and start lifting sanctions if Iran returns to full compliance, but with Iran waiting for the US to make the first move, a stand-off ensues. Our base case assumes sanctions remain in place until 2025. We explore how quickly Iran can ramp-up production after sanctions are lifted and the impact on the oil market if sanctions are lifted sooner.

Table of contents

  • Uncertain path to lifting of sanctions
  • Stand-off thwarts next steps
  • What does it mean for oil supply?
  • Maximum exports will be key to boost revenues
  • What is the impact if sanctions are lifted earlier?
  • Moderate market impact as gains absorbed by rising demand
  • One million b/d of oil production could rebound within six months

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Iran long-term liquids capacity with assumption sanctions lifted in 2025
  • Iran short term oil supply scenarios
  • Implied stock change (Million b/d)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iran sanctions: how quickly can oil production be restored?

    PDF 773.20 KB