Macro Oils long-term 2021 outlook to 2050
This report is currently unavailable
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
-
Global supply: emphasis on long-term downgrades
- Non-OPEC: near term growth turns to decline in the mid-2030s, which accelerates post-2040
- North America - the key growth region and then the key area for declines in the long term
- US Lower 48: stronger activity recovery is expected in the near-term, but the long-term lower price has a profound impact on supply
- The recovery from 2020 lows has been uneven across the Lower 48
- Above ground challenges: investor scrutiny, operator consolidation and an evolving regulatory landscape
- Rest of North America – NGL and oil sands supply lead growth, minor downgrades overall
- Latin America – deepwater projects underpin strong growth
- Russia and Caspian: medium and long-term supply potential upgraded
- Africa: emerging production from Uganda and Kenya should stabilise output into the longer term
- Europe: minor growth to a secondary peak in 2023, then long-term decline
- Asia: overall liquids output will fall steadily through to 2050, but China and Australia fare best
- Impact of the energy transition on long term non-OPEC supply
- 27 million b/d of non-OPEC reserves growth, other discoveries and yet-to-find required by 2050
- OPEC capacity rises steadily through the 2030s; post-2040 downgrades lead to plateau
- Iraq development slows due to lack of investment following low oil price and revenues
- Iran: capacity stays flat as sanctions assumption remains unchanged
- UAE turns to unconventional oil in push to meet ambitious capacity targets
- Saudi Arabia crude capacity is assumed to remain close to 12 million b/d
- Minor revisions to rest of OPEC production
-
Global demand: Global liquids demand reaches a peak by 2034 and turns to structural decline
- Sector demand trends
- Fuel demand from light vehicles
- Risks to global liquids demand
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Macro oils short-term outlook: July 2024
Market fundamentals offer further price support as Brent strengthens through June.
$2,000Global rare earths strategic planning outlook - Q2 2024
Global rare earths strategic planning outlook - Q2 2024
$10,000Macro Oils short-term outlook May 2019: supply constraints, OPEC spare capacity and easing economic concerns
The oil market is the scene of several geopolitical stand offs, how will the oil price react?
$2,000