Macro Oils short-term outlook: June 2020

Following the release of the Macro Oils long-term outlook report, we provide the updated short term forecast through 2021. Changes focus mostly on the outcome of the 6 June 2020 OPEC+ meeting. OPEC+ agreed to a one-month extension through July of the 9.7 million b/d production cut originally intended for only May and June. The huge supply reduction was already making progress. By extending that level for an extra month, the supply and demand balance will tighten more quickly. Highlights of this short-term report include: • Further production curtailments in North America • Lowering of OPEC+ supply as the first phase of production cuts extended to July • Global demand on the road to recovery but faces obstacles in H2 2020 • What regions, products will drive 2021 global demand growth? • Lower expected peak in US crude inventories due to more resilient US waterborne exports