Commodity Market Report

North America Crude Markets short-term outlook Feb 2020

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Early out of the gate for 2020, the North American crude market has already seen positive developments out of Canadian pipeline projects, and both Permian and Cushing egress updates that will have pricing implications for both Midland and Cushing WTI prices. Perhaps the biggest theme to emerge early this year is the expectation for continued slowing production growth out of L48 producers as a poor pricing environment, investor pressure, and a plummeting rig count into year end take their toll, rippling into 2021. In this report we explore: Permian long-haul pipeline developments Refresh Canadian pipeline project outlook Provide latest thoughts on US L48 production outlook What a flatter Bakken production outlook means for potential pipeline constraints Tease out themes from earnings commentary for US midstream and downstream players

Table of contents

  • L48 production outlook: growth continuing to moderate in 2021
  • Turning of the tide: midstream earnings themes
  • Staying the course: Downstream earnings themes
  • On the bright side – Canadian-originating pipelines roll ahead
  • Additional granularity on Cushing balances

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