North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: January 2023

December was defined by disruptions for the North American crude value chain. A spill shuttered the Keystone pipeline system, hampering WCSB egress capacity and deliveries to US downstream markets. Meanwhile, extreme cold temperatures led to widespread refinery outages in the US in late December, particularly in the Gulf Coast. In this month’s publication, we provide an overview of the recovery progress for both major disruptions as of early January. Although partially resolved, lingering impacts of the events – especially the refinery outages – are spilling into the new year. US refinery crude runs remained ~390 kb/d below pre-storm rates as of January 9 (compared to a peak impact of ~1.55 million b/d), according to Wood Mackenzie. We also discuss our expectations for US L48 supply amid winter freeze-offs and completion efficiency gains.