North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: March 2024

US refinery turnaround season was fully underway in February – especially in the Gulf Coast, where severe temperatures caused a flurry of shutdowns ahead of planned maintenance. As expected, this turnaround season is proving to be heavier than previous cycles following years of maintenance deferrals. February crude runs fell nearly 2 million b/d compared to December levels. The unplanned outage at BP Whiting further contributed to suppressed domestic crude runs. Refinery outages and shifting global trade flows drove monthly exports above 5 million b/d in February. Previous records were shattered for overall US waterborne exports, shipments to Asia, and Houston waterborne loadings. In this report, we assess the drivers behind record exports and detail our expectations for US crude runs and export volumes going forward.