Commodity Market Report
North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: October 2021
Report summary
As we roll our short-term outlook out to 2023 we assess the market implications of the in-service of the beleaguered TransMountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline by mid-2023. The immediate effects will be seen in Western Canadian pricing. However, second order impacts are likely to be seen in Cushing inventories, USGC light-heavy spreads, and even impacts in the Pacific basin with Dubai pricing. In this update we assess the market impacts of the TMX in-service as well as: • 2023 forecast extensions for supply, pricing, inventories and midstream forecasts • Effects of an anticipated lingering capital discipline mantra in US L48 in 2023 • Impacts from Permian supply growth in 2023 on a completed midstream system buildout
Table of contents
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US Lower 48: capital restraint continues into 2023
- Drilling activity due for an increase
- Corporate landscape will drive tight oil growth, not price
-
Other North American Supply
- US Gulf of Mexico
- US NGLs
- Canada
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