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What does peak oil demand mean for the price of oil?

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30 November 2018

What does peak oil demand mean for the price of oil?

Report summary

In this insight, we address what will happen to the oil price given the peak in oil demand in the late 2030s. Despite the peak, oil demand by 2040 is still 10% higher than our current level of demand. In a world where the cost of crude oil extraction will rise as we drill up cheap and plentiful supplies in the US, and push further into frontier territories around the world to deliver the marginal barrel, prices will not collapse as we approach peak oil demand. Through the 2030s we expect oil prices to be much higher than they are today.

Table of contents

  • Peak oil demand: how do we get there?
  • With improvements in fuel efficiency and a rapid take up in electric vehicles, why does oil demand grow at all in our forecast?
  • On the supply side, non-OPEC production peaks in the early 2030s
  • Higher cost supply is required into the long-term

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Global liquids demand
  • Global demand lost to EVs and natural gas
  • Demand by region
  • Demand by main product
  • Electric vehicle sales
  • EV sales share
  • Global car stock by vehicle type
  • Demand displaced by electric vehicles
  • Developing world middle class
  • Developing world passenger vehicle fleet
  • Year-on-year change in global production capacity
  • A supply gap of 26 million b/d must be met by new drilling by 2030

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    What does peak oil demand mean for the price of oil?

    PDF 945.19 KB

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