Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables 2021 outlook to 2050
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook. Wood Mackenzie’s gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables 2021 outlook to 2050) – shows Henry Hub prices to remain close to US$2.89/MMBtu until 2030. We forecast Henry Hub to take a circuitous route to reach over US$4/ MMBtu by 2050 – not dissimilar to our prior outlook. However, three distinct market balancing mechanisms play critical roles in our Henry Hub price trajectory: upgraded associated supply, sustained export growth, and energy transition efforts. In contrast, NYMEX’s future gas prices consider a flatter and steadier trend, ranging between US$2.40/MMBtu and US$2.70/MMBtu in the long term.
Table of contents
- This NYMEX case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook.
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- NYMEX vs. Wood Mackenzie’s Henry Hub gas price forecast
- Annual average LMPs in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
- Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Absolute Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
- Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Percentage Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs Base Case)
What's included
This report contains:
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