Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables base case
Report summary
This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook. Wood Mackenzie’s gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook) – shows Henry Hub prices back to near US$3/MMBtu by 2024. Elevated oil and gas prices will incentivize more supply to come back to the market and pressure Henry Hub prices to the downside in the near term. However, the surge of the next wave of North America LNG exports will result in a ramp up in Henry Hub prices in the late 2020s, pushing it to US$3.2/MMBtu. In contrast, NYMEX’s future gas prices consider a slower recovery, holding Henry Hub closer to US$4/MMBtu through the mid-2020s.
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