Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Investment Horizon Outlook 2022
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Report summary
This “NYMEX” case presents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and its impact on our long-term outlook on Mexico’s power sector. Wood Mackenzie’s gas price forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables investment horizon outlook) – shows Henry Hub prices back to near US$3/MMBtu in 2025 after a period of price volatility in 2023-2024. The surge in North American LNG exports expected in the medium-term pushes Henry Hub prices to an average of US$3.5/MMBtu in the 2026-2030 period. In contrast, NYMEX futures gas prices consider a higher price path in the mid-term, holding Henry Hub closer to US$4/MMBtu through the 2026-2030 period.
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