Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Investment Horizon Outlook 2022
Report summary
This “NYMEX” case presents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and its impact on our long-term outlook on Mexico’s power sector. Wood Mackenzie’s gas price forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables investment horizon outlook) – shows Henry Hub prices back to near US$3/MMBtu in 2025 after a period of price volatility in 2023-2024. The surge in North American LNG exports expected in the medium-term pushes Henry Hub prices to an average of US$3.5/MMBtu in the 2026-2030 period. In contrast, NYMEX futures gas prices consider a higher price path in the mid-term, holding Henry Hub closer to US$4/MMBtu through the 2026-2030 period.
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