Commodity Market Report

NYMEX sensitivity case, developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2020

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23 July 2020

NYMEX sensitivity case, developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2020

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case – featured a material price premium for Henry Hub in this decade over its previous outlook and compared to the current futures market, primarily driven by structural changes to the supply mix. While we estimate Henry Hub to rise close to $4/mmbtu by the end of the forecast period, NYMEX's future gas prices consider a flatter and steadier trend, reaching $2.5/mmbtu by 2032 and staying below the mark of $3/mmbtu by 2040. This sensitivity case provides the results of our Mexico's power sector long-term outlook using NYMEX's forecasted gas prices as a principal input. The more considerable variations are observed on Local Marginal Prices due to the country's energy mix dependence on gas-based generation.

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Avg_Day_Month_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 2.41 MB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Capacity_Prices_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 87.88 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Clean_Energy_Compliance_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 70.93 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Nominal_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 267.86 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Real_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 266.81 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Load_Forecast_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 99.54 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Nominal_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 1.32 MB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Real_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 2.88 MB

  • Document

    LTO_H1_2020_NYMEX_Power_Supply_Demand_Energy_Mexico_7_17_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 583.64 KB

  • Document

    NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico GP&R LTO H1 2020.pdf

    PDF 366.07 KB