Commodity Market Report

NYMEX sensitivity case, developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2020

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19 February 2021

NYMEX sensitivity case, developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2020

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie’s gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case - shows Henry Hub prices to remain close to US$2.99/mmbtu until 2030. However, downgrades to our associated supply will become more material in the 2030s, as WTI oil prices are revised down by US$3-4/bbl starting in the late 2020s. As the gas market needs to call on higher cost dry gas supply to offset the associated supply downgrade, we expect Henry Hub to increase towards US$4/mmbtu by 2040. In contrast, NYMEX’s future gas prices consider a flatter and steadier trend, ranging between US$2.0/mmbtu and US$2.5/mmbtu in the long term. This sensitivity case provides the results of our Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook using NYMEX’s forecasted gas prices as a principal input. The more considerable variations are observed in energy prices due to the country’s energy mix dependence on gas-based generation.

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Avg Day Month 2 17 2021

    XLSX 4.26 MB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Capacity Prices Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 88.12 KB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Clean Energy Compliance Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 70.39 KB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 260.67 KB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Delivered Fuel Prices Real Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 262.45 KB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Load Forecast Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 99.86 KB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 3.69 MB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 5.28 MB

  • Document

    LTO H2 2020 NYMEX Supply Demand Energy Mexico 2 17 2021

    XLSX 570.57 KB

  • Document

    NYMEX sensitivity case, developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2020

    PDF 1023.31 KB