Commodity Market Report
China product markets long-term outlook H1 2020
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China (excluding Hong Kong) was deficit in LPG, naphtha and fuel oil and surplus in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel/gasoil in 2019. Oil product demand in China (excluding Hong Kong) has grown over the past decade to 13.16 million b/d in 2019. However, due to the Covid-19 crisis in 2020, we expect a year-on-year decline of 2.5% (or 333,000 b/d) for China's oil product demand in 2020. Transport oil demand has been hit the worst while petrochemical feedstock remains strong. The recovery of liquid demand is accelerating since April 2020 when restrictions have been eased. But we expect the total demand will not return to the pre-crisis levels until Q3 2020, mainly due to the slow recovery of jet fuel demand. Looking ahead, oil product demand in China is forecast to peak in 16.75 million b/d in 2031 and reach 16.3 million b/d in 2040. The outlook is based on average annual GDP growth of 4.2% between 2020 and 2040, which is materially lower than average growth of 8% in the preceding decade.
Table of contents
- LPG
- Naphtha
- Gasoline
- Jet/other kerosene
- Diesel/gasoil
- Fuel oil
-
Fuel quality specifications
- Gasoline
- Diesel/gasoil
- Fuel oil
- Taxes and pricing mechanism
- Fuel pricing mechanism
- Import and export system
- Refinery infrastructure
- Refinery investments
-
Crude slate
- Crude trade
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Liquid road fuel demandTotal car parc (passenger vehicle stock)Share of car parc by fuel type
-
OverviewNorth ChinaShandongSouth ChinaWest ChinaRefinery capacity investments 2019-2025Refinery throughputs and utilisationNon-refinery supply by productNon-refinery supply by source
- 2 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Mining the roof of the world: Can Tibet carry China’s copper supply growth?
An overview of copper resource development in Tibet: current status, key challenges and long-term outlook.
$1,050
Insight
India's National Steel Policy (NSP) Vision 2047
Can India achieve its 2047 steel ambitions? Wood Mackenzie assesses demand, capacity, raw materials and key risks.
$1,050
Asset Report
Fujian - LNG regas terminal
The Fujian LNG facility is owned by CNOOC (60%) and Fujian Investment and Development (40%). The inaugural shipment was delivered from ...
$1,450
