Commodity Market Report

China product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

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08 July 2020

China product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

Report summary

China (excluding Hong Kong) was deficit in LPG, naphtha and fuel oil and surplus in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel/gasoil in 2019. Oil product demand in China (excluding Hong Kong) has grown over the past decade to 13.16 million b/d in 2019. However, due to the Covid-19 crisis in 2020, we expect a year-on-year decline of 2.5% (or 333,000 b/d) for China's oil product demand in 2020. Transport oil demand has been hit the worst while petrochemical feedstock remains strong. The recovery of liquid demand is accelerating since April 2020 when restrictions have been eased. But we expect the total demand will not return to the pre-crisis levels until Q3 2020, mainly due to the slow recovery of jet fuel demand. Looking ahead, oil product demand in China is forecast to peak in 16.75 million b/d in 2031 and reach 16.3 million b/d in 2040. The outlook is based on average annual GDP growth of 4.2% between 2020 and 2040, which is materially lower than average growth of 8% in the preceding decade.

Table of contents

  • LPG
  • Naphtha
  • Gasoline
  • Jet/other kerosene
  • Diesel/gasoil
  • Fuel oil
    • Gasoline
    • Diesel/gasoil
    • Fuel oil
    • Taxes and pricing mechanism
    • Fuel pricing mechanism
    • Import and export system
  • Refinery infrastructure
  • Refinery investments
    • Crude trade

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Liquid road fuel demand
  • Total car parc (passenger vehicle stock)
  • Share of car parc by fuel type
  • Overview
  • North China
  • Shandong
  • South China
  • West China
  • Refinery capacity investments 2019-2025
  • Refinery throughputs and utilisation
  • Non-refinery supply by product
  • Non-refinery supply by source
  • Historical net product trade
  • Product balances – all supply versus demand

What's included

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    China product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

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