China product markets long-term outlook H2 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 January 2021

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Report summary

China (excluding Hong Kong) was deficit in LPG, naphtha and fuel oil and surplus in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel/gasoil in 2020. Oil product demand in China (excluding Hong Kong) has grown over the past decade to 13 million b/d in 2019. However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect a year-on-year decline of 3.4% (or 450,000 b/d) for China's oil product demand in 2020. Transport oil demand has been hit the hardest while petrochemical feedstock remained robust. Looking ahead, we expect China’s oil demand to rebound by 1.3 million b/d year-on-year in 2021 and return to the growth path towards a peak of 17 million b/d in the early 2030s. By 2050, China’s oil demand is expected to decline by 16% (2.7 million b/d) from the peak. This outlook is based on average annual GDP growth of 3.7% between 2020 and 2050, which is materially lower than average growth of 8% in the preceding decade.

LPG
Naphtha
Gasoline
Jet/other kerosene
Diesel/gasoil
Fuel oil
Fuel quality specifications
- Gasoline
- Diesel/gasoil
- Fuel oil
- Taxes and pricing mechanism
- Fuel pricing mechanism
- Import and export system
Crude slate
- Crude trade
Refinery infrastructure