Gelsenkirchen - shrink to survive?

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bp has announced the decommissioning of five systems at Germany's Gelsenkirchen refinery from 2025, with crude production capacity being reduced by around a third. The 260 kb/d capacity site, located in the state of North-Rhine Westphalia, follows in the footsteps of Shell's nearby Rhineland refinery - which will also downsize its operations from 2025. With the cost of carbon ever rising, and European transport fuel demand declining in light of the energy transition, refineries need to not only maintain their margin competitiveness, but also their carbon competitiveness in order to survive. In this insight, we use Wood Mackenzie's refinery simulation software PetroPlan and Refinery Evaluation Model Chemicals (REM-Chems) to evaluate Gelsenkirchen's reconfiguration and assess the rationale behind BP's decision. Our analysis includes: - Gelsenkirchen's present-day configuration - Modelling the refinery post-investment - Impact on site EBITDA

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