Global refinery closure threat update 2023 (full data access)

In a post-covid environment, the refining margins are expected to be healthy but the risk of refinery closure is still pertinent. Site rationalisation, mainly high-risk refineries, could sustain 2030 global refinery utilisation at around 2015-2019 highs. Loss of future competitiveness against integrated sites, lack of upgrading capabilities, a non-core site and lack of low carbon projects are aspects that can lead to closure. In this refinery closure threat analysis update, Wood Mackenzie presents the methodology and results to reflect the global nature of the refining industry. Major enhancements include the assessment of a list of global refineries, the petrochemical contribution from our new REM-Chemicals offering and the change in net cash margin post-investment.