Insight
IMO 2020 Updated analysis of the marine fuel sulphur changes
Alan Gelder, VP Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets explores how refiners can benefit from this legislation, as well as their potential hurdles.
Report summary
The change in IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunker fuel impacts the mix of fuel types consumed by the shipping sector in 2020. This insight summarises our latest view on the impact of this change, providing an update on the article published in August 2017. We have made a downward revision to our scrubber penetration rate in 2020, although we still expect a ramp up in the number of scrubbers installed post-2020, particularly in the new build market. Our base-case outlook also assumes higher compliance and higher availability of ULSFO in 2020, although many uncertainties remain surrounding the implementation path for the global sulphur cap. The insight provides our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H2 2017 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances. We also present further work in relation to the pricing and availability of ULSFO, assessing supply from pure ULSFO streams as well as blending with VGO.
Why buy this report?
Our latest IMO 2020 insight further develops our outlook on the impacts of the marine fuel sulphur changes. Key developments in this report include:
- More granular analysis of the uptake of sulphur scrubbers in the global shipping fleet, assessing the rate of penetration by vessel type up to 2025
- More detailed analysis of ULSFO supply availability from pure streams and VGO blending, highlighting increased availability in the African and Russian markets
- Additional work on ULSFO pricing, identifying the key price setting drivers for this new fuel specification
- Our latest forecasts for fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H2 2017 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances
- To download and view a sample file click here
Related subscription products
Table of contents
- No table of contents specified
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Asset Report
McPhillamys gold project
A detailed analysis of the McPhillamys gold project
$2,250
Asset Report
Wingellina - Cobalt project
A detailed analysis of the Wingellina nickel project.
$2,250
Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal 10-year investment horizon outlook - 2023
Will investing in metallurgical coal pay off over the next decade?
$10,000
