Commodity Market Report
Nigeria retail fuels long-term outlook
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Report summary
Demand for refined products, particularly transport fuels, is expected to grow significantly in Nigeria over the next two decades. The decline in refining capacity utilisation due to chronic underinvestment means that the country imports the majority of its road transport fuel demand. Nigeria plans to restart its state-owned refineries as soon as possible, while the Dangote refinery (opened in 2023) reached a utilization rate of approximately 60% in 2025. Approximately 33,300 retail service stations are spread across Nigeria, with the majority being clustered in major city hubs. The absence of a predictive and clear fiscal environment has resulted in slow private sector participation in the downstream sector.
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