Oil products price forecast mid-month update July 2020

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for July 2020 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month. These changes reflect recent data releases and major market developments since our last update on 1 July. We have made no revision to our Brent price outlook for this mid-month update and will provide a revised outlook based on a full supply / demand balance analysis during the monthly price update. Our global composite refining margin increased to US$0.29/bbl in July, but remains below the five-year low. The strengthening margin reflected the recovery in transport fuel demand, as easing of lockdown measures coincided with the peak northern hemisphere summer driving season. Refinery runs continued to lag demand recovery, but margins remain very weak. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published by close Wednesday 1 July.