Oil products price forecast mid-month update May 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for May 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. In the first few weeks of May global refining margins have recovered some of the losses from the sharp crash witnessed in April, when our average weekly global composite margin declined to only US$0.2/bbl above the 5-year average (excluding 2022). Margins have drawn some support from slightly stronger distillate and fuel oil cracks, but weaker gasoline cracks have limited the rebound. Gross refining margins for simpler refining configurations in both Asia and Europe remain borderline negative, with margins only expected to recover close to historic average levels over the summer period. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 June 2023.