Oil products price forecast mid-month update November 2021

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for November 2021 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 1 November. We have retained our early November monthly Brent price forecast. This reflects the market psychology of concern about tightness if fuel switching were to occur at high rates. We do not expect the demand surges or supply shortfall currently priced in. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin decreased in the first half of November as fuel oil cracks continued to weaken globally. Gasoline cracks in the Atlantic basin have remained seasonally high while strong Asian and European distillate cracks have also continued to provide additional support. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on 1 December 2021.