Oil products price forecast mid-month update November 2022

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for November 2022 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 1 November. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin fell in the first half of November. Weaker middle distillate cracks in all the main pricing hubs drove the margin lower as European refinery strikes ended. Atlantic basin refinery supply also rose as seasonal maintenance ended in both Europe and the United States. However, stock levels of both diesel/gasoil and gasoline remain very low limiting the downside to global margins. Product cracks remain highly susceptible to spikes as inventories are low and refinery production yields yoyo to meet short-term regional supply deficits. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 December 2022.