Oil products price forecast update December 2020

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. Our global composite monthly refining margin declined in November to US$1.35/bbl driven by weakness in gasoline cracks. Slightly stronger global middle distillate cracks on larger than expected US and European stock draws were not enough to offset the gasoline weakness. We do still see continued middle distillate weakness limiting the upside to the composite margins. We expect the composite margin to weaken through Q4 2020 as second wave lockdowns weigh heavily on gasoline and jet cracks globally. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Wednesday 16 December.