Oil products price forecast update February 2023

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2024 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin averaged US$14.66/bbl in January, US$5.58/bbl higher than in our previous monthly forecast, and US$1/bbl higher than in our mid-month update. In this outlook we have further increased our forecast for the global margin in February by US$4.71/bbl to US$14.64/bbl, with margins remaining elevated for longer on tight Atlantic basin balances. We expect global margins to average US$15.26/bbl in March and US$13.69/bbl in Q2 2023, increases of US$5.28/bbl and US$3.85/bbl, respectively.