Oil products price forecast update July 2023

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2025 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin increased in June, supported by across-the-barrel strength in the Atlantic basin, except for naphtha. We expect global average margins to have already reached the seasonal peak in June. Faltering demand and higher refinery supply, following an active and prolonged maintenance season in Europe and China, are forecast to pressure margins in the coming months. We expect the global composite margin to fall month on month from July to the end of the year.