Oil products price forecast update June 2020

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2021 on a regional level. Our global composite refining margin weakened turned negative in May, the lowest level so far this year. The decline in the refining margin was due to the continued weakness in middle distillate and gasoline cracks in Europe and the US. We expect the global composite to remain negative through June as margins in the US and Europe are forecast to remain weak as slower than forecast demand recovery and high stock levels limit any upside to refinery runs and crack spreads. Rising domestic product demand and tightening supply of gasoil for the wider Asia-Pacific export market will provide some support to Asian middle distillate cracks as refiners continue to cut crude runs. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Monday 15 June.