Oil products price forecast update May 2021

Our monthly Global Composite margin increased US$1.19/bbl to US$4.16/bbl in April, the highest monthly value for a year. We expect the composite margin to ease from current levels to US$3.35/bbl in May, as the March and April tightness in Atlantic Basin gasoline balances continues to ease. Our outlook for the Q2 and Q3 2021 sees global margins averaging below US$4.00/bbl, with values peaking in September as demand steadily improves over the summer. This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Monday 17 May.