Oil products price forecast update October 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide an update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for September 2023 have been updated to reflect the latest supply and demand changes in our balance forecast. Global refining margins remained elevated versus historical levels through September despite declining by US$4.25/bbl month on month. The sharp seasonal collapse in gasoline cracks was offset by a spike in diesel cracks after Russia announced a temporary ban on exports. Our updated forecast now shows October global margins averaging US$8.81/bbl, and an average of $US7.41/bbl in Q4 2023, a downward revision of US$1.04/bbl. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published on 16 October 2023.