Commodity Market Report

Poland downstream oil long-term outlook

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04 September 2019

Poland downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

Poland is the largest national market for oil products in the CEE region and is one of few remaining growth markets in Europe. Most of the demand growth has come from the road diesel segment, resulting in a widening middle distillate deficit and an increasing requirement for imports. The downstream sector is fully liberalised with oil product prices set according to free market forces. But the industry structure is characterised by the dominance of the two domestic refiners, PKN ORLEN and Grupa LOTOS. The latter has been investing in its Gdansk refinery, with a new Delayed Coking Unit (DCU) completed in mid-2019. The European Commission is investigating a proposed merger of these two companies. The deal could see the market become highly concentrated, as the new entity would be a monopoly refiner with dominance over the fuels market. More stringent environmental regulations around service stations has led to continued consolidation of smaller independent fuel retailers in Poland.

Table of contents

  • Market drivers
  • Outlook
  • Regulatory issues
  • Product quality and biofuel
  • Overall position - net importer
    • Volumes
    • Overall network development
    • Domestic oil companies
    • PKN ORLEN
    • Grupa LOTOS
    • International oil majors
    • BP
    • Shell
    • Circle K
    • Hypermarket groups
    • Independent groups
    • Network efficiency
    • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
    • Non-fuel retailing
    • Motor fuels (gasoline and diesel)
    • Industrial and domestic gasoil
    • Aviation kerosene
    • Heavy fuel oil
    • LPG
    • Lubricants
    • Bitumen
    • Fuels marketing net profitability
  • Distribution of oil products
    • Independent petroleum product storage
    • Independent storage facilities
    • Pipeline capacity and ownership
  • Country crude slate overview
  • Refining overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

  • Trade balance
  • Key trading partners - 2018
  • Gasoline - net importer
  • Jet/kero - net exporter
  • Diesel/gasoil - net importer
  • Fuel oil - net exporter
  • Key demand indicators
  • Total demand
  • Annual change in demand
  • Demand forecast (kt)
  • Main products: monthly unit gross margins
  • Main products: annual average unit gross margins
  • Means of primary distribution
  • Crude input slate
  • Gdansk refinery profile
  • Jedlicze refinery profile
  • Plock refinery profile
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Retail network size and structure
  • Retail outlets by brand
  • Hypermarket fuel outlets by brand
  • Motorway fuel outlets by brand
  • Retail market shares
  • Retail network size and throughput
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Commercial diesel volumes
  • Unit net margins
  • Storage and distribution infrastructure

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Poland downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.61 MB

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