Regional product markets short-term outlook April 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2021

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Report summary

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2022 on a regional level. Extended lockdowns in Europe and the slow recovery of US Gulf Coast refiners from the winter freeze limits the recovery in global crude runs until Q2 2021. From Q2 2021, US and European refiners are expected to increase run rates through to Q3 2021 to meet peak summer travel demand. Despite Asian transport fuel demand recovering sharply through March, led by China, we see Asian crude runs remaining relatively flat through until Q3 2021 due to maintenance and lower seasonal summer activity in China.

Atlantic basin demand recovery stalls but outlook is for stronger summer gasoline demand
- PMS-ST methodological review
- PMS-ST Product enhancement
- Changes to our Short-Term demand view
- Changes to our Short-Term supply view
- Regional refinery analysis