Regional product markets short-term outlook April 2023

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2024 on a regional level. In the near term, we have made a downward revision to Q1 and Q2 2023 runs driven by lower European, Middle East, and Asian runs. We see stronger runs in Q3 2023 on the back of tightening gasoline balances in the Atlantic basin, supporting stronger European runs. This increase offsets lower African runs in H2 given the phased start-up profile of Nigeria's 650 kb/d Dangote refinery. We have also raised our outlook for Russian crude runs in H2 2023 given the emergence of new buyers for Russian distillates in recent weeks, which supports a stronger outlook. The global distillate tightness is still likely to emerge, but as we commented in the last update, the focus is now on Q3 2023, when demand is expected to recover in the Atlantic basin and growth in China accelerates.