Regional product markets short-term outlook February 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 January 2024

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Report summary

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2025 on a regional level. January saw product inventories continue to build across all three major fuels; however, the onset of maintenance season means that stocks are likely near their seasonal peaks. Even with lengthening fundamentals, January also saw a significant increase in geopolitical risk, as increasing attacks by Ukraine against Russian infrastructure and tensions in the Red Sea impacted product trade flows. With crude runs expected to drop almost 1 million b/d month-on-month in February due to maintenance, we expect to see increased market sensitivity to further supply disruptions.