Commodity Market Report
Regional product markets short-term outlook February 2024
Report summary
This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2025 on a regional level. January saw product inventories continue to build across all three major fuels; however, the onset of maintenance season means that stocks are likely near their seasonal peaks. Even with lengthening fundamentals, January also saw a significant increase in geopolitical risk, as increasing attacks by Ukraine against Russian infrastructure and tensions in the Red Sea impacted product trade flows. With crude runs expected to drop almost 1 million b/d month-on-month in February due to maintenance, we expect to see increased market sensitivity to further supply disruptions.
Table of contents
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Global refining system tightens on Spring maintenance and Red Sea tensions, with adjustment of trade flows prompting price spikes
- Key Market Highlights
- Red Sea disruption impacts
- Changes to our Short-Term demand view
- Changes to our Short-Term supply view
- Regional Analysis
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