Regional product markets short-term outlook January 2024

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2025 on a regional level. Global product balances continued to recover in December, with gasoline and diesel inventories building strongly with jet stocks remaining roughly flat. With heavy spring maintenance expected in the US and Middle East and Chinese product exports remaining low, both middle distillate and gasoline balances will tighten in Q1 2024. However, with several large refinery startups projected for 2024, product markets look poised to return to a more balanced position by mid-year, as refinery supply grows.