Insight
BP’s upstream wind-down
Report summary
BP is embarking on the defining strategic pivot in its 111-year history. From Big Oil to Big Energy. The implications for its upstream business are profound: BP plans to cut oil and gas production by 1.1 million boe/d (40%) over the next decade. In this note, we analyse the company’s restructuring plans and – using Lens and our Emissions Benchmarking Tool – weigh-up its options for getting to 1.5 million boe/d.
Table of contents
-
Executive summary
- Key messages:
-
BP guidance
- Production
- Capital investment
-
How does BP get to 1.5 million boe/d?
- Where does the current disposal target fit?
- BP’s upstream portfolio
-
Portfolio restructuring options
- Producing assets
- Pre-production assets
- US Lower 48
-
Carbon
- Value at risk
- Emissions
- Final thought
- Addendum: Rosneft (the elephant in the room)
- What next?
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- BP upstream portfolio: how ‘strategic fit’ might change on net zero pathway
- BP targets / guidance for production to 2030 vs WoodMac base modelling
- BP guidance for underlying production to 2025 vs. WoodMac base modelling
- BP guidance for capex to 2030 vs WoodMac base modelling
- BP upstream portfolio: strategic fit and value by country
- BP’s producing portfolio: cash flow margin 2020-2025 at US$30/bbl and US$70/bbl
- BP’s pre-production portfolio: IRR (@ US$50/bbl, zero carbon tax) vs payback
- WoodMac projected 1) production vs capex and 2) free cash flow (absolute and unit)
- WoodMac projected 1) free cash flow (unit) and 2) cumulative free cash flow
- Carbon liability and value-at-risk percentage, US$100/tonne carbon tax, no tax offsets
- Net operated emissions 2020-2030 vs. 1) value at risk and 2) NPV/tonne CO2e
What's included
This report contains:
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