Insight
Brazil M&A: operator landscape grows
Report summary
Petrobras continues to dominate Brazil’s upstream sector. But its divestments have begun to change the operator landscape, building the stage for small to medium-sized E&Ps. Most of the entrants have yet to release details on their redevelopment plans, but we have taken a view on the potential. Upside on our 10 selected deals is significant – US$3 billion of NPV10. Still, investment opportunities won’t come without challenges. We analyzed the most impactful risks, strengths and key support factors.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
The rise of a new E&P class
- Opportunity pipeline: Petrobras’ divestment plan
- Buyer playbook: challenges and strengths
-
Case study
- Methodology: quantifying the upside
- Upside potential: beyond our base case valuation
- Support factors: reduced royalties
-
Corporate and above-ground risks
- Access to capital: surprisingly well-funded for now
- Capex commitments: quick paybacks despite sizable investments
- Decommissioning: framework remains murky
- Finding a market: reliance on Petrobras
- Environmental regulation: state-by-state approach for onshore
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Sustaining the operator momentum
- Private equity: nothing is everlasting
- The Brazil model: learning from overseas
- Annex: quantifying the upside potential
Tables and charts
This report includes 6 images and tables including:
- Among the 10 assets we selected for this analysis, Albacora and Papa-Terra stand out
- We ran upside scenarios for the 10 assets below based on water depth, basin, maturity and size
- Recent upstream asset sales highlighting case studies
- Remaining NPV10 comparison for the selected assets under different Brent scenarios
- Gearing evolution for key E&Ps
- Payback time for selected assets before and after deal considerations
What's included
This report contains:
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