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27 November 2018

Eni corporate report

Report summary

Eni's exploration-led strategy is unique among the Majors and the company is reaping the rewards of its success. Big discoveries and a turnaround in its project execution will deliver production growth to 2021. They will also underpin a more integrated gas business and global LNG ambitions. Finances are in good shape, supporting the capture of new low-cost oil resource, the next phase of investment and potential to go after growth opportunities, in both upstream and downstream. Renewables and decarbonisation are also more prominent strategically as Eni starts to position itself for the energy transition unfolding.

Table of contents

  • Other Eni research
  • Executive summary
    • Overview
    • Strategic position
    • Strategic priorities and opportunities
      • 1. Conventional exploration excellence; Eni has raised the bar for the Majors
        • 1.1 Outstanding performance
        • 1.2 The next phase: can Eni replicate recent success?
        • 1.3 De-risk the resource capture strategy
      • 2. Alternative growth and portfolio rebalancing options
        • 2.1 Discovered resource opportunities (DROs)
        • 2.2 Opportunistic M&A
        • 2.3 Gas & Power and renewables
        • 2.4 Downstream
      • 3. Upstream growth, base business performance, and potential upside
        • 3.1 Manage base business and deliver new production
        • 3.2 Upsides to our base-case modelling
      • 4. Project execution turnaround
        • 4.1 Project execution
        • 4.2 Project returns and breakevens
      • 5. Financial discipline supports expansion and enhanced shareholder returns
        • 5.1 Improving capital discipline and future investment plans
        • 5.2 Balance sheet and cash flow strength
        • 5.3 Shareholder Distributions
        • 5.4 Asset Disposals
        • 5.5 Digitalisation
      • 6. Global gas strategy
        • 6.1 LNG ambitions
        • 6.2 Progress the integrated model to reach targets
      • 7. Decarbonisation and new energies
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserves and resources metrics
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 56 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Benchmark: share price performance
  • Benchmark: market rating to WM NPV10
  • Strategic fit of upstream regions (split by OECD and non-OECD countries)
  • Benchmark: NPV10 by resource theme
  • Benchmark: NPV10 by region
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV10
  • Current NPV10 vs. Future NPV10
  • Base case upstream NPV10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported costs
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Oil vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Benchmark: Majors' deal spend 2014-2018*
  • Benchmark: net resource additions 2014-2017
  • Eni: WoodMac base case vs Eni targets (including historic)
  • Benchmark: WoodMac production forecast
  • Benchmark: Majors' indexed production
  • Benchmark: conventional resource additions
  • Benchmark: conventional exploration returns
  • Eni: 10-year E&A spend and reinvestment
  • Benchmark: Majors' exploration investment rate
  • Benchmark: Majors' net acreage additions
  • Benchmark: Majors' deepwater acreage
  • Eni: WoodMac forecast for new production
  • Benchmark: production CAGRs
  • Eni: new project returns
  • Benchmark: Majors average weighted return
  • Eni: development capex (2019-2025)
  • Benchmark: capital investment (2019-2023)
  • Eni: net debt outlook 2016 to 2021
  • Benchmark: Majors' gearing evolution
  • Eni: cash flow breakeven by year
  • Benchmark: Majors' cash flow breakeven
  • Eni: dividends per share 2014-2018 (USD terms)
  • Benchmark: Major dividend yield 2014-2017
  • Benchmark: LNG liquefaction capacity
  • Benchmark: Majors' gas into LNG
  • Eni: contracted LNG supply 2018 vs. 2025
  • Benchmark: Majors' contracted LNG

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