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Gazprom corporate report

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20 November 2018

Gazprom corporate report

Report summary

Gazprom’s strong financial and operational performance contradicts the worsening geopolitical relationship between Russia and the West. The company has sustainable cash flow breakevens, with an average Brent price of US$53/bbl needed for the company's upstream business to be cash flow neutral in 2018/2019 in our base case. Its gearing of 16% is also one of the lowest in the sector. Gazprom’s production outlook looks strong in the near- to mid-term, underpinned by Europe’s robust demand and declining indigenous supply, as well as the start-up of gas exports to China from 2019 – a new gas market with a massive growth potential. 

Table of contents

  • Other Gazprom research
  • Executive summary
  • Strategy
    • Current strategic positioning
    • Strategic priorities
      • 1. Europe: low cost gas remains Gazprom’s key competitive advantage
      • 2. China: Gazprom on the verge of accessing a new market with a huge growth potential
      • 3. Russia: business as usual
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserves and resources metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie Corporate Service: our response to low oil prices
    • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 39 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Relative share price performance
  • Market premium to WM valuation
  • Strategic fit for Gazprom’s global portfolio
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported development costs
  • Reported and WM forecasted production
  • Oil vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves; Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Reserve life: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Europe gas demand by sector
  • Russia pipe vs LNG imports to Europe
  • Gazprom’s gas exports
  • China gas supply
  • Gazprom’s share of Russian domestic market
  • Gazprom's gas sales volumes and revenues
  • Gazprom's portfolio value by resource theme
  • Gazprom LNG supply
  • Brent price required for cash flow neutrality
  • Benchmarking: Brent price required for cash flow neutrality
  • Benchmark: return on new projects
  • Benchmarking: upstream capex intensity (2018-2022)
  • Benchmarking: production
  • Benchmarking: CAGR

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Gazprom corporate report

    PDF 1.18 MB

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    Gazprom corporate report

    ZIP 1.64 MB

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    Gazprom Corporate Report.xlsx

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