Global oil supply 10-year investment horizon outlook

In our investment horizon outlook, global oil supply revisions are weighted to the downside, averaging around 1 million b/d over the forecast period to 2033. This is mainly driven by the impact of sanctions on Russia, which offsets upgrades to US Lower 48, Mexico, Kazakhstan and China. For OPEC, near term downgrades are focused on Nigeria and Iraq, with medium term upgrades to Saudi Arabia. Global production capacity is still expected to increase from 105 million b/d in 2022 to 116 million b/d in 2033, with non-OPEC supply contributing over half this growth. OPEC supply stays broadly flat before increasing significantly from 2025 due to expansions by core Middle East producers, although the gains generally diminish over the rest of the forecast.