Global supply is forecast to add 1.4 million b/d of growth in 2019, assuming OPEC continue to restrain production through the year. But what are the major risks and uncertainties? The looming spectre of recession is beginning to influence markets – we don’t expect one, but how might producers respond if there is one? Geopolitics have remained a sharp focus of the last year. Expect 2019 to be just as turbulent as the last – will Iranian sanction waivers be renewed, and what will OPEC’s strategy be? Meanwhile the US continues to grow, but how fast and what constraints are there? On the conventional side of things, Brazil is our wildcard. Last years growth failed to materialise - will 2019 be Brazil’s year?